Wall Street WARZONE
Economists’ Predictions are Bad News: 6 Reasons
by Paul B Farrell, JD, PhD
| Discuss | | 2/10/2010

Years ago a BusinessWeek headline asked: “What Do You Call an Economist with a Prediction? Wrong!” Get it? Take everything they say with a grain of salt. Your guess is as good as theirs. Once, I did have a homerun. In March 2009 millions of investors were impatiently waiting on the sidelines, sitting with $2.5 trillion cash under their mattress, waiting for the right moment. I saw the signal screaming: “Bottom’s in, start buying!” Sure, it might go down again, but the bottom’s in, I wrote, thanks to a great March, possibly the third best month since 1950. Time to jump back in and buy, buy, buy! I was “right.” In six months the market skyrocketed over fifty percent. But it was just a good guess. And I wouldn’t trust my next “prediction.” Nor a professional economist’s. Predicting stock markets is a loser’s game. (More)